Theory of change

Neoliberalism came into force because political leaders, led by Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan, decided to put it into force. The decision to implement Neoliberalism was a political decision, it was not an accident.

Subsequent political leaders, in the UK, the US and beyond, have decided to continue the Neoliberal project. But it will not last forever.

The future holds open one vital possibility: a new generation of democratically elected political leaders could take office and emphatically declare what many experts have already concluded: Neoliberalism is dying – and needs to die – if climate, ecological, and therefore societal collapse is to be avoided.

To do this, however, to – in effect – call time on Neoliberalism from the steps of 10 Downing Street, this new generation will need to both emerge and take power. How that happens is what this theory of change addresses.

Phase 1 – in progress and likely to intensify as climate and nature crisis deepens and ‘solutions’ fail.

1. People lose faith in the power of environmentalism - Many people are starting to feel that the current way our society works isn’t delivering a good life for most people. The cost of living is high, people feel disconnected (from each other and nature), and the projects that are meant to deal with problems like climate change don’t seem to be working. Environmentalism is failing, disillusionment is growing.

2. Problems are seen as connected - At the same time, it is becoming clearer to more people that the problems we face aren’t separate. Issues like the economy, the environment, politics, and social wellbeing are all linked. When one gets worse, it often makes the others worse too - and they all have shared roots.

3. People begin looking for alternatives - As this realisation spreads, more people begin looking for different ways of organising society. They want less focus on competition and individual success, and more on relationships, community, and care for the natural world.

Phase 2 – emergent and evident in pockets, but largely still to come and where focus is shifting to.

4. New spaces and ways of living are created - In different places, people start creating and using new kinds of shared spaces. These might be community hubs, local groups, parks, playgrounds, or simply places where people regularly come together. Schools and teachers also play an important role here, helping shape how younger generations think about community, responsibility, themselves, nature, and the future.

5. People experience something different - As more people spend more time in these kinds of spaces, they begin to experience something different from the norm. They build relationships, feel a stronger sense of belonging, and start to see themselves as part of a wider whole rather than just individuals acting alone. This begins to change how people see themselves, how they see each other, and how they see the ‘more-than-human’ world (plants, animals, landscapes).

6. Values, attitudes and behaviours begin to shift - This doesn’t happen everywhere, and it doesn’t happen evenly. Some people resist it, and other forces push in the opposite direction. But in many places, as these shared experiences become more common and part of daily life, they fundamentally change who we are as people and as a society. People begin to think and act differently. A new normal emerges.

7. Communities grow stronger and more active - Over time, relationships and trust strengthen in our communities. As a result, people get better at working together and want to work together. They start to organise around local issues. They support each other, they create art, music, sport, and other forms of culture. They also take part more often in civic and political life.

Phase 3 – to come and contingent on the scale and speed of change in phase two.

8. Local energy turns into wider influence - As more of these communities grow and connect with each other, appetite for wider societal change grows. As a community of communities, they begin to have a wider influence. The mandate and enthusiasm for profound political change grows.

9. Political change at a national level begins - New leaders and movements, rooted in these communities, gain enough support to take power through the democratic process. Under new leadership, the wider social and economic system is transformed. The new system is environmentally positive, truly democratic, and much fairer on the working and middle classes.

10. Change is protected and sustained - Even then, change isn’t guaranteed to last. Systems have a way of falling back into old patterns. So ongoing effort is needed. There is a need to sustain the strong communities, active participation, and continued public debate that has emerged. This is what ensures the new direction holds.

N.b. We have also published a more detailed technical version of this theory of change.