Deliberation 3: Theory of Change

Draft narrative version of a ToC for The Miracle Inn

This is our third deliberation exercise and an important one. As before, please use the comment section below to leave your thoughts on what is described below. I’m most interested in how this theory of change stacks up, does it make sense?

Fundamentally, The Miracle Inn believes that the future will be tough, but that it is possible to make it less tough than it might otherwise be if we do nothing.

I’m posting this with apologies for the use of some jargon, when we publish the final version it will be fully referenced and include multiple footnotes. We will also create a diagrammatic version and a plain English version. For now however, please let the search engine of your choice be your friend - or do please get in touch for recommended reads.

I truly believe the below can happen (and already is happening) and I think The Miracle Inn and all of us can help make it happen.

Vision

The Miracle Inn believes that a more socially just, ecologically regenerative, climate resilient, and culturally vibrant future is possible and imminent. It will not be perfect, it will not be a utopia, it will have challenges and injustices; there will be growing pains. But for the many, it will be better than what might otherwise unfold.

We believe that within a decade a society will emerge that is more democratic, diverse, connected, and healthy. Lives in that society will be more varied, purposeful, and interdependent. They will be less isolated, bland and adrift.

We do not believe, however, that Neoliberalism – an ideological project and socio-economic system that currently shapes who we are and how we live – is capable of delivering such a future. In fact, we believe that Neoliberalism is dying and that its failure to deliver the society described above is a core reason why.

This [draft] theory of change outlines how we think the future – that we believe is imminent – will begin to be realised. Our manifesto (coming soon) will set out the role The Miracle Inn will play in creating it.   

Context

Neoliberalism came into force because political leaders, led by Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan, decided to put it into force. The decision to implement Neoliberalism was a political decision, not an accident.

Subsequent political leaders, in the UK, the US and beyond, have decided to continue the Neoliberal project. But it will not last forever.

The future holds open one vital possibility: a new generation of democratically elected political leaders could take office and emphatically declare what many experts have already concluded: Neoliberalism is dying – and needs to die – if climate, ecological, and therefore societal collapse is to be avoided.

To do this, however, to – in effect – call time on Neoliberalism from the steps of 10 Downing Street, this new generation will need to both emerge and take power. How that happens is what this theory of change must address.

Theory of Change [draft for comment]

Step 1

Disillusionment with depoliticised, mainstream, and ‘climate liberal’ approaches to environmentalism continues to grow as belief in their ability to affect the scale of change necessary fades away.

Step 2

Major national and international challenges that were once thought of as separate from one another come to be more widely understood as intersecting and mutually reinforcing crises within a larger polycrisis and metacrisis. This is a paradigm shift in how a crisis like climate change is understood - it is already underway.

Step 3

The paradigm shift is leading to a phase out of climate liberal approaches to environmentalism, this will accelerate the growth of the emergent movement for interdependence. This movement is nascent, but developing. It is focused on reconnecting humans with nature, and with each other - it counteracts the forces hyper-individualism and tackles the wider causes of the polycrisis.

Step 4

The movement for interdependence gains further momentum and begins to rein in hyper-individualism by creating, advocating for, and driving up use of online and real-world social infrastructure (including nature embedded social infrastructure).

Step 5

As the quality and volume of social infrastructure improves and expands, increasing numbers of people begin gravitating towards it. This exposes them to new and diverse ways of thinking and being in the world. The effect is transformative, they begin to rediscover themselves as interdependent, rather than independent selves.

Step 6

As use of real-world social infrastructure (‘third places’) increases, the use and influence of social media platforms falls. This leads to an increase in social capital, and a decrease in social atrophy and its associated negative effects. The effect on communities is transformative, as we are already seeing in several places around the UK.

Step 7

Upon these foundations, communities collaborate, cooperate, and take collective action to: build resilience, capitalise on opportunities to improve their lives, create new forms of art and culture, and organise politically. Again, we are already seeing evidence of this in some UK communities.

Step 8

Social infrastructure and strong social capital becomes the norm, not the exception across the UK. As a result, a political movement, rooted in – and of – these vibrant communities, grows into a force large enough to win local, regional, and national elections.

Step 9

This movement forms a Government with a mandate strong enough to declare the end of neoliberalism, and the birth of a new socio-economic system.

Overarching step

Running throughout and in parallel within steps 1 to 9, online and in person social infrastructure is utilised to facilitate a growing conversation on the form the new socio-economic model should take.

These deliberations – which are already in motion – are where, to paraphrase Milton Friedman, ‘the ideas that are lying around’ are being developed and tested ready for implementation.     

Thank you for reading, please feedback via the comment section below. Apologies if your comment doesn’t appear immediately, it is moderated by a human before it is published.